If the American Public Decided the Oscars, It Would be a Close Race Between 'Ray' and 'The Aviator' for Best Picture

If the American Public Decided the Oscars, It Would be a Close Race Between 'Ray' and 'The Aviator' for Best Picture

American adults cast their votes for who they think should win the Oscars this year for best picture, best actor and best actress

ROCHESTER, N.Y., Feb. 23 /PRNewswire/ -- While there may be a boxing movie among this year's Oscar nominees, the American public seems to think "Ray" and "The Aviator" are the two movies which should be fighting for best picture Oscar. According to the latest Harris Poll, 23 percent of U.S. adults say best picture should go to "Ray" on February 27, and 21 percent say it should go to "The Aviator." Other films receiving less support are "Million Dollar Baby" (14%), "Finding Neverland" (7%) and "Sideways" with five percent thinking it should get the honor.

These are the results of a nationwide Harris Poll of 1,012 U.S. adults surveyed by telephone by Harris Interactive(R) between February 8 and 13, 2005.

The race for best actor is a bit more clear - nearly one-third (31%) of adults say that Jamie Foxx should win the award for his performance in "Ray." Clint Eastwood in "Million Dollar Baby" comes in second with 19 percent, and 12 percent believe it should be Leonardo DiCaprio for "The Aviator."

When looking at the best actress nominees, one-third (33%) believe the Oscar should go to Hilary Swank for her performance in "Million Dollar Baby," however one in five (20%) adults are not sure who should win.

Other results from The Harris Poll are:

* Men believe the best picture Oscar should go to "The Aviator" (26%)
while women believe it should go to "Ray" (23%).

* In the best actress race, there are some generational differences in who
should win the Oscar. Echo boomers (aged 18-27) are much more likely to
believe Kate Winslet should win for her performance in "Eternal Sunshine
of the Spotless Mind" (33%) while Gen X'ers (28-39) and Baby Boomers
(aged 40-58) are more likely to think Hilary Swank should win (37% and
38%, respectively) for her performance in "Million Dollar Baby." Nearly
a third (31%) of matures (aged 59 and over) believe Hilary Swank should
win, but another 31 percent are not sure who should take home the Oscar
for best actress.

* Both African Americans and Hispanics are more likely to think "Ray"
should win best picture (64% and 33%, respectively), while Whites
believe "The Aviator" should win the Oscar (24%). African Americans are
also much more likely to believe that Jamie Foxx should win for best
actor (67%) than either Whites (24%) or Hispanics (36%). In the best
actress category, while Whites (32%), African Americans (39%) and
Hispanics (30%) pick Hillary Swank to win, for Hispanics, Catalina
Sandino Moreno runs a close second for her performance in "Maria Full of
Grace" (28%).

* Republicans, Democrats and Independents are not only of differing minds
on political candidates and issues, but also with regard to the Oscars.
Republicans are more likely to believe "The Aviator" (25%) should win
best picture, and Clint Eastwood (22%) is not far behind frontrunner
Jamie Foxx (25%). Democrats, on the other hand, are more likely to
choose "Ray" (29%) for best picture and Jamie Foxx (35%) by more than 16
percentage points over Clint Eastwood (19%) for best actor.

* When looking at the frequency with which people go to the movies, among
those who have seen five or more movies in the past three months,
one-third (34%) think "Ray" should win best picture. Among those who
have not been to the movies in the past three months, 21 percent believe
"The Aviator" should get top honors.


TABLE 1
BEST PICTURE OSCAR
"Which movie should win the Oscar for Best Picture?"
Base: All adults

Total Gender Race
M F Whites African Hispanics
Americans (n=62)**
(n=61)**
% % % % % %
Ray 23 24 23 16 64 33
The Aviator 21 26 17 24 13 10
Million Dollar Baby 14 14 14 15 5 23
Finding Neverland 7 4 9 7 1 10
Sideways 5 5 5 5 2 8
None of these 10 10 11 12 4 9
Not Sure 18 15 20 21 11 7
Decline to Answer 1 2 * 1 -- --

Generation
Echo Boomers Gen X Baby Boomers Matures
(age 18-27) (age 28-39) (age 40-58) (age 59+)
% % % %
Ray 40 24 22 10
The Aviator 18 16 24 25
Million Dollar Baby 12 13 16 15
Finding Neverland 13 8 6 4
Sideways 6 6 6 3
None of these 6 12 11 13
Not Sure 5 21 16 29
Decline to Answer -- 1 1 1


Party ID Movie Attendance in
Past 3 Months
Republican Democrat Independent 0 1-4 5 or more
Times Times Times
% % % % % %
Ray 22 29 17 15 30 34
The Aviator 25 16 21 21 22 22
Million Dollar Baby 8 17 21 14 11 23
Finding Neverland 6 7 9 7 7 9
Sideways 3 8 5 4 7 6
None of these 16 9 6 13 9 3
Not Sure 19 14 21 25 14 3
Decline to Answer 2 1 -- 1 1 --

* 0.5 percent or less.
** These results should be used directionally because of the very low
sample size.


TABLE 2
BEST ACTOR OSCAR
"Who should win the Oscar for Best Actor?"
Base: All adults

Total Gender Race
M F Whites African Hispanics
Americans (n=62)**
(n=61)**
% % % % % %
Jamie Foxx for Ray 31 35 27 24 67 36
Clint Eastwood
for Million
Dollar Baby 19 20 18 20 1 26
Leonardo DiCaprio
for The Aviator 12 13 12 13 7 14
Johnny Depp for
Finding
Neverland 9 8 10 11 3 5
Don Cheadle for
Hotel Rwanda 8 6 10 7 13 11
None of these 5 6 4 5 3 5
Not Sure 14 11 18 17 6 2
Decline to Answer 1 2 1 2 -- --

Generation
Echo Gen X Baby Matures
Boomers (age 28-39) Boomers (age 59+)
(age 18-27) (age 40-58)
% % % %
Jamie Foxx for Ray 45 35 26 21
Clint Eastwood for
Million Dollar Baby 11 14 23 25
Leonardo DiCaprio
for The Aviator 13 9 13 14
Johnny Depp for
Finding Neverland 17 14 6 5
Don Cheadle for Hotel Rwanda 7 7 11 5
None of these 4 3 5 7
Not Sure 3 18 14 21
Decline to Answer -- 1 2 2


Party ID Movie Attendance
in Past 3 Months
Republican Democrat Independent 0 1-4 5 or More
Times Times Times
% % % % % %
Jamie Foxx for Ray 25 35 34 23 36 42
Clint Eastwood for
Million Dollar Baby 22 19 17 24 14 16
Leonardo DiCaprio
for The Aviator 13 10 15 11 11 19
Johnny Depp for
Finding Neverland 9 10 8 7 12 11
Don Cheadle for
Hotel Rwanda 5 12 7 6 11 4
None of these 7 4 4 7 2 6
Not Sure 18 10 15 20 12 1
Decline to Answer 2 1 -- 2 1 *

* 0.5 percent or less.
** These results should be used directionally because of the very low
sample size.


TABLE 3
BEST ACTRESS OSCAR
"Who should win the Oscar for Best Actress?"
Base: All Adults

Total Gender Race
M F Whites African Hispanics
Americans (n=62)**
(n=61)**
% % % % % %
Hilary Swank for
Million Dollar Baby 33 34 32 32 39 30
Not Sure 20 17 22 23 11 9
Kate Winslet for
Eternal Sunshine of
the Spotless Mind 16 16 16 26 13 18
Annette Bening for
Being Julia 12 11 14 14 11 7
Catalina Sandino Moreno
for Maria Full
of Grace 8 9 7 4 15 28
Imelda Staunton for
Vera Drake 1 1 1 1 4 1
None of these 8 9 7 8 7 7
Decline to Answer 2 2 2 2 -- --

Generation
Echo Gen X Baby Matures
Boomers (age 28-39) Boomers (age 59+)
(age 18-27) (age 40-58)
% % % %
Hilary Swank for
Million Dollar Baby 22 37 38 31
Not Sure 5 23 18 31
Kate Winslet for Eternal
Sunshine of the Spotless Mind 33 19 11 7
Annette Bening for Being Julia 5 10 17 13
Catalina Sandino Moreno for
Maria Full of Grace 21 7 4 5
Imelda Staunton for Vera Drake 3 -- 1 1
None of these 10 4 8 10
Decline to Answer 1 * 2 2


Party ID Movie Attendance
in Past 3 Months
Republican Democrat Independent 0 1-4 5 or More
Times Times Times
% % % % % %
Hilary Swank for
Million Dollar Baby 30 34 37 30 32 45
Not Sure 26 15 20 26 18 6
Kate Winslet for
Eternal Sunshine of
the Spotless Mind 17 15 16 13 18 21
Annette Bening for
Being Julia 12 13 12 11 14 10
Catalina Sandino
Moreno for
Maria Full of Grace 4 11 8 7 8 12
Imelda Staunton
for Vera Drake * 2 1 * 1 4
None of these 10 9 4 10 7 2
Decline to Answer 2 1 2 2 2 *

* 0.5 percent or less.
** These results should be used directionally because of the very low
sample size.

Methodology


The Harris Poll(R) was conducted by telephone within the United States between February 8 and 13, 2005 among a nationwide cross section of 1,012 adults aged 18 and over. Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of adults, number of voice/telephone lines in the household, region and size of place were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.

In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results of the overall sample have a sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire U.S. adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. Sampling error for results from sub-samples is higher and varies. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (nonresponse), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

J23283
Q700, Q705, Q710, Q715

The Harris Poll(R) #15, February 23, 2005


By Regina Corso, senior research director of Public Policy Research, Harris Interactive.

About Harris Interactive(R)

Harris Interactive Inc. (http://www.harrisinteractive.com/), the 15th largest and fastest-growing market research firm in the world, is a Rochester, N.Y.-based global research company that blends premier strategic consulting with innovative and efficient methods of investigation, analysis and application. Known for The Harris Poll(R) and for pioneering Internet-based research methods, Harris Interactive conducts proprietary and public research to help its clients achieve clear, material and enduring results.

Harris Interactive combines its intellectual capital, databases and technology to advance market leadership through U.S. offices and wholly owned subsidiaries: London-based HI Europe (http://www.hieurope.com/), Paris-based Novatris (http://www.novatris.com/), Tokyo-based Harris Interactive Japan, through newly acquired WirthlinWorldwide, a Reston, Virginia-based research and consultancy firm ranked 25th largest in the world, and through an independent global network of affiliate market research companies. EOE M/F/D/V.

To become a member of the Harris Poll Online(SM) and be invited to participate in future online surveys, visit http://www.harrispollonline.com/.

Press Contacts:

Nancy Wong
Harris Interactive
585-214-7316

Kelly Gullo
Harris Interactive
585-214-7172

Harris Interactive 2/05



Source: Harris Interactive

CONTACT: Nancy Wong, +1-585-214-7316, or Kelly Gullo, +1-585-214-7172,
both of Harris Interactive

Web site: http://www.harrisinteractive.com/
http://www.harrispollonline.com/


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