Iraq and the Two Americas

Iraq and the Two Americas

ROCHESTER, N.Y., Dec. 17 /PRNewswire/ -- The latest Harris Poll finds that public opinion is still split right down the middle on Iraq. Indeed it looks as if there are two different Americas looking at different news, different analysis and coming to two very different points of view. The other conclusion to be reached from these new data from Harris Interactive(R) is that fundamental attitudes toward U.S. involvement in Iraq have changed little since early in 2004.

These are the results of a nationwide Harris Poll of 2,092 U.S. adults surveyed online by Harris Interactive between December 8 and 15, 2004.

Examples of how the country is divided include:
* The 43 percent of the public who continue to think that taking
military action against Iraq was the right thing, and the 43 percent
who think that it was the wrong thing to do.
* The 50 percent of adults who think that the situation in Iraq is
getting worse and the other 50 percent who either think that there is
no real change, that things are getting better or are not sure.
* The 51 percent of all adults who say that they are not confident that
U.S. policies in Iraq will be successful and the other 49 percent who
are either confident or who are not sure.



The only question in this survey which produces a significant majority of opinion on Iraq is the one which measures President Bush's handling of Iraq over the last few months. On this a 57 to 42 percent majority continues to give him negative ratings. These are virtually identical to the ratings he has received on this question on all the occasions that The Harris Poll(R) has asked it since April this year.

Differences between those who voted for Bush and Kerry

The split between people who hold positive and negative views on Iraq is very similar to the split between those who voted for President Bush or Senator Kerry. Those who voted for the president are overwhelmingly positive and optimistic, while those who voted for Kerry are overwhelmingly negative and pessimistic.

TABLE 1

RATING OF PRESIDENT BUSH - HANDLING OF IRAQ

"Overall, how would you rate the job President Bush has done in handling the

issue of Iraq over the last several months?"

Base: All Adults
2003 2004
Mar. April May July Sept. Nov. Jan. Feb.
% % % % % % % %
Positive (NET) 56 67 63 49 47 41 51 48
Excellent 29 38 34 21 16 15 20 23
Pretty good 27 29 28 29 31 26 31 26
Negative (NET) 43 32 36 50 51 58 46 51
Only fair 16 15 18 22 19 19 20 19
Poor 27 17 18 28 32 38 26 32
Not sure 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1

Mar. April May June July Sept. Dec.
% % % % % % %
Positive (NET) 49 43 42 41 39 41 42
Excellent 18 15 13 13 15 14 12
Pretty good 31 29 29 27 24 27 30
Negative (NET) 49 55 56 58 58 58 57
Only fair 19 18 18 19 17 17 19
Poor 30 37 39 39 40 41 37
Not sure 2 2 2 1 3 2 2

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100 percent due to rounding.

(C) 2004, Harris Interactive Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction
prohibited without the express written permission of Harris
Interactive.


TABLE 2
CONFIDENT THAT U.S. POLICIES WILL BE SUCCESSFUL
"How confident are you that U.S. policies in Iraq will be successful?"

Base: All Adults
2003 2004
Sept. Nov. Jan. Feb. March April May June July Sept. Dec.
% % % % % % % % % % %
Confident 27 25 31 31 31 26 25 25 26 29 29
Not confident 46 51 45 48 46 52 55 53 51 54 51
Not sure 27 24 24 22 22 22 20 22 23 18 20

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding.

(C) 2004, Harris Interactive Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction
prohibited without the express written permission of Harris
Interactive.


TABLE 3
WAS MILITARY ACTION THE RIGHT THING TO DO?
"Thinking about everything that has happened, do you think that taking
military action against Iraq was the right or wrong thing to do?"

Base: All Adults
2003 2004
Sept. Nov. Jan. Feb. March April May June July Sept. Dec.
% % % % % % % % % % %
Right thing 55 49 55 52 51 49 47 44 43 43 43
Wrong thing 32 37 31 34 33 37 38 42 42 43 43
Not sure 13 13 15 14 16 14 14 14 15 13 14

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding.

(C) 2004, Harris Interactive Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction
prohibited without the express written permission of Harris
Interactive.


TABLE 4
IS SITUATION FOR U.S. TROOPS GETTING BETTER OR WORSE
"Do you think that the situation for U.S. troops in Iraq is . . .?"

Base: All Adults
2004
Jan. Feb. March April May June July Sept. Dec.
% % % % % % % % %
Getting better 24 22 24 9 11 19 18 15 18
Getting worse 36 38 38 64 65 49 45 54 50
No real change 31 31 30 20 19 26 30 26 25
Not sure 8 9 8 6 5 6 7 6 6

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding.

(C) 2004, Harris Interactive Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction
prohibited without the express written permission of Harris
Interactive.


TABLE 5
SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ATTITUDES OF THOSE WHO VOTED FOR BUSH AND KERRY

Base: All Adults

VOTED FOR:
Bush Kerry
% %
Give President Bush:
Positive job rating 84 2
Negative job rating 15 98
Confident U.S. policies in Iraq will be successful 58 3
Believe military action in Iraq:
Was right thing to do 81 6
Was wrong thing to do 8 82
Believe situation for U.S. troops
in Iraq is getting worse 22 81

(C) 2004, Harris Interactive Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction
prohibited without the express written permission of Harris
Interactive.


Methodology


The Harris Poll(R) was conducted online within the United States between December 8 and 15, 2004 among a nationwide cross section of 2,092 adults (aged 18 and over), of whom 812 said they voted for George W. Bush and 872 voted for John Kerry in the 2004 presidential election. Figures for age, sex, race, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. "Propensity score" weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.

In theory, with probability samples of this size, one could say with 95 percent certainty that the results for the overall sample have a sampling error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. Sampling error for the Bush voter results and the Kerry voter results is plus or minus 4 percentage points of what it would be if the entire U.S. adult population of those who had voted for Bush or those who had voted for Kerry in the 2004 presidential election had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (non-response), question wording and question order, and weighting. It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. This online sample was not a probability sample.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

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Q601, Q610, Q615, Q620, Q625

About Harris Interactive(R)


Harris Interactive Inc. (http://www.harrisinteractive.com/), the 15th largest and fastest-growing market research firm in the world, is a Rochester, N.Y.-based global research company that blends premier strategic consulting with innovative and efficient methods of investigation, analysis and application. Known for The Harris Poll(R) and for pioneering Internet-based research methods, Harris Interactive conducts proprietary and public research to help its clients achieve clear, material and enduring results.

Harris Interactive combines its intellectual capital, databases and technology to advance market leadership through U.S. offices and wholly owned subsidiaries: London-based HI Europe (http://www.hieurope.com/), Paris-based Novatris (http://www.novatris.com/), Tokyo-based Harris Interactive Japan, through newly acquired WirthlinWorldwide (http://www.wirthlinworldwide.com/), a Reston, Virginia-based research and consultancy firm ranked 25th largest in the world, and through an independent global network of affiliate market research companies. EOE M/F/D/V.

To become a member of the Harris Poll Online(SM) and be invited to participate in future online surveys, visit http://www.harrispollonline.com/.

Press Contacts:
Nancy Wong,
Harris Interactive
585-214-7316

Kelly Gullo
585-214-7172
Harris Interactive



Source: Harris Interactive Inc.

CONTACT: Nancy Wong, +1-585-214-7316, or Kelly Gullo, +1-585-214-7172,
both of Harris Interactive

Web site: http://www.harrisinteractive.com/
http://www.hieurope.com/
http://www.novatris.com/
http://www.wirthlinworldwide.com/
http://www.harrispollonline.com/


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