'Crash,' Joaquin Phoenix and Reese Witherspoon Should Take Home Oscars, According to Harris Poll of U.S. Adults

'Crash,' Joaquin Phoenix and Reese Witherspoon Should Take Home Oscars, According to Harris Poll of U.S. Adults

For Best Picture Award, Plurality Says They are Either Not Sure Who Should Win or That They Would Not Pick Any of the Nominees to Win

ROCHESTER, N.Y., March 1 /PRNewswire/ -- While "Brokeback Mountain" may be receiving a lot of critical acclaim and attention from the media, one in five (20%) U.S. adults say "Crash" should win the Best Picture Oscar(R) this year. Only 13 percent believe "Brokeback Mountain" should win, followed by 10 percent who each say "Good Night and Good Luck" and "Munich" should take home the award. The fifth nominee "Capote" has the support of four percent of adults. What may be worrisome for the producers of the Academy Awards(R) is that one-quarter (24%) of adults say they are not sure who should win, and 18 percent think none of these five should win. Without being invested in a movie, will they tune in to watch the awards?

These are the results of a nationwide Harris Poll of 1,016 U.S. adults surveyed by telephone by Harris Interactive(R) between February 7 and 14, 2006.

In the race for Best Actor (32%), one-third of adults say Joaquin Phoenix should win for his portrayal of Johnny Cash in "Walk the Line," while 15 percent believe the Oscar should go to Heath Ledger for his performance in "Brokeback Mountain." The other three nominees do not garner as much support as eight percent say the award should go to Philip Seymour Hoffman for "Capote," seven percent choose Terrence Howard for "Hustle and Flow," and four percent say David Strathairn should win for "Good Night and Good Luck." Again, almost one-quarter (23%) say they are not sure who the Best Actor nod should go to this year.

The Best Actress race is much clearer, at least in the minds of the American public. More than two in five (43%) adults say Reese Witherspoon should win the Oscar for "Walk the Line." Her fellow nominees receive single- digit support: Keira Knightley for Pride and Prejudice" (7%), Felicity Huffman for Transamerica (7%), Charlize Theron for "North Country" (6%) and Judi Dench for "Mrs. Henderson Presents" (6%). One in five (20%) are not sure who should win for Best Actress.

Each year there is debate over the choice of host, so Jon Stewart may have his work cut out for him on Oscar night. Though he may have come in second this year on The Harris Poll's top-10 list of favorite television personalities(1), when asked about his selection as host, only nine percent of adults say Jon Stewart will make them more likely to watch, seven percent say it makes them less likely to watch and 84 percent say it makes no difference.

Other results from The Harris Poll(R) are:

* While both men and women say the Best Picture Oscar should go to "Crash"
(19% and 21%, respectively), women are more likely than men (18% vs. 8%)
to say "Brokeback Mountain" should win the Oscar.

* Perhaps due to the eclectic nature of the movies nominated, there is a
large generational divide over who should win. "Crash" is a clear
favorite of the younger generation, as 40 percent of Echo Boomers (those
18 to 27 years of age) say it should win Best Picture. Baby Boomers
(those 40 to 58 years of age)are split, as 15 percent each say "Crash"
and "Brokeback Mountain" should win the Oscar, while 15 percent of
Matures (those 59 years of age and older) say the Oscar should go to
"Good Night and Good Luck."

* Both African Americans(2) and Hispanics(3) are more likely to say
"Crash" should win Best Picture (42% and 28%, respectively), as compared
to 17 percent of Whites who say this. African Americans (40%) are also
much more likely than Whites (2%) or Hispanics (4%) to say that Terrence
Howard should win for Best Actor. Hispanics (25%) are more likely to
name Heath Ledger as Best Actor than Whites or African Americans (14%
and 15%, respectively).

* The partisan divide in this country is not only seen in Washington, but
also in the Oscar race. Democrats are more likely than Republicans to
say that both "Crash" (28% vs. 18%) and "Brokeback Mountain" (18% vs.
8%) should win. Republicans are more likely to say none of the nominees
should win (22% vs. 11%). This same partisan divide is evident in the
Best Actor race, as 42 percent of Republicans want to see Joaquin
Phoenix thank the Academy, compared to 25 percent of Democrats.
Democrats, however, are more likely than Republicans to say Heath Ledger
(21% vs. 10%) and Terrence Howard (12% vs. 1%) should win.

(1) Harris Poll #12, February 3, 2006, "For Fourth Consecutive Year, Oprah
is America's Top Favorite TV Personality."
http://www.harrisinteractive.com/harris_poll/index.asp?PID=636
(2) Small base (n<100). Data should be used directionally.
(3) Small base (n<100). Data should be used directionally.

TABLE 1
BEST PICTURE OSCAR
"Which movie should win the Oscar for Best Picture?"

Base: All adults
Gender Race
Total Male Female White African Hispanic**
American**
% % % % % %
Crash 20 19 21 17 42 28
Brokeback Mountain 13 8 18 14 7 12
Good Night and Good Luck 10 8 12 10 7 16
Munich 10 11 8 10 2 13
Capote 4 4 4 5 3 2
None of these 18 24 12 17 20 14
Not sure 24 24 24 26 19 14
Decline to answer 1 1 1 1 - -

Party ID
Total Republican Democrat Independent
% % % %
Crash 20 18 28 19
Brokeback Mountain 13 8 18 13
Good Night and Good Luck 10 8 13 10
Munich 10 11 6 10
Capote 4 6 3 6
None of these 18 22 11 17
Not sure 24 26 21 25
Decline to answer 1 1 * 1

Generation
Echo Gen X Baby Mature
Boomer (age 30-41) Boomer (age 61+)
(age 18-29) (age 42-60)
% % % %
Crash 40 27 15 3
Brokeback Mountain 8 17 15 13
Good Night and Good Luck 8 6 11 15
Munich 13 7 11 7
Capote 3 5 5 4
None of these 12 20 17 22
Not sure 16 18 26 36
Decline to answer * 1 2 *

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
* Less than 0.5%.
** Small base (n<100). Data should be used directionally.

TABLE 2
BEST ACTOR OSCAR
"Who should win the Oscar for Best Actor?"
Base: All adults
Race Party ID
Total White African Hispanic* Republican Democrat Independent
American*
% % % % % % %
Joaquin
Phoenix for
"Walk the
Line" 32 35 9 30 42 25 28
Heath Ledger
for "Brokeback
Mountain" 15 14 15 25 10 21 14
Philip Seymour
Hoffman for
"Capote" 8 8 5 6 5 10 9
Terrence Howard
for "Hustle
and Flow" 7 2 40 4 1 12 8
David Strathairn
for "Good
Night and
Good Luck" 4 5 5 7 5 5 4
None of these 10 9 12 10 11 7 11
Not sure 23 25 10 19 24 18 25
Decline to
answer 2 1 4 - 2 1 2

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
* Small base (n<100). Data should be used directionally.

TABLE 3
BEST ACTRESS OSCAR
"Who should win the Oscar for Best Actress?"
Base: All Adults
Generation
Total Echo Boomer Gen X Baby Boomer Mature
(age 18-29) (age 30-41) (age 42-60) (age 61+)
% % % % %
Reese Witherspoon
for "Walk the Line" 43 53 48 40 33
Keira Knightley for
"Pride and Prejudice" 7 10 5 9 3
Felicity Huffman for
"Transamerica" 7 5 11 6 5
Charlize Theron for
"North Country" 6 13 6 4 4
Judi Dench for "Mrs.
Henderson Presents" 6 6 4 6 10
None of these 10 3 10 9 15
Not sure 20 9 15 23 29
Decline to answer 1 * 1 1 1

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
* Less than 0.5%.

TABLE 4
JON STEWART AS HOST

"This year Jon Stewart has been chosen to host the Oscars. Does this selection for a host make you more likely to watch the Oscars this year, less

likely to watch the Oscars or will it make no difference to you?"

Base: All Adults
Generation
Total Echo Boomer Gen X Baby Boomer Mature
(age 18-29) (age 30-41) (age 42-60) (age 61+)
% % % % %
More likely 9 10 10 8 7
Less likely 7 7 7 6 6
No difference 84 83 82 86 86
Not sure * * - * 1
Decline to answer * - - - -

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
* Less than 0.5%.

Methodology

The Harris Poll(R) was conducted by telephone within the United States between February 7 and 14, 2006 among a nationwide cross section of 1,016 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of adults, number of voice/telephone lines in the household, region and size of place were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.

In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results of the overall sample have a sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire U.S. adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. Sampling error for the sub-sample results is higher and varies. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (nonresponse), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

J26827
Q900, Q905, Q910, Q920

The Harris Poll(R) #21, March 1, 2006

By Regina Corso, research director, Issues and Industry Research Practice, Harris Interactive(R)

About Harris Interactive(R)

Harris Interactive Inc. (http://www.harrisinteractive.com/), based in Rochester, New York, is the 13th largest and the fastest-growing market research firm in the world, most widely known for The Harris Poll(R) and for its pioneering leadership in the online market research industry. Long recognized by its clients for delivering insights that enable confident business decisions, the Company blends the science of innovative research with the art of strategic consulting to deliver knowledge that leads to measurable and enduring value.

Harris Interactive serves clients worldwide through its United States, Europe (http://www.harrisinteractive.com/europe) and Asia offices, its wholly- owned subsidiary Novatris in Paris, France (http://www.novatris.com/), and through an independent global network of affiliate market research companies.

EOE M/F/D/V

To become a member of the Harris Poll Online(SM) and be invited to participate in future online surveys, go to http://www.harrispollonline.com/.

Press Contact:
Jennifer Cummings
Harris Interactive
585-214-7720

Source: Harris Interactive

CONTACT: Jennifer Cummings of Harris Interactive, +1-585-214-7720

Web site: http://www.harrisinteractive.com/

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