ISM Makes Annual Adjustments to Seasonal Factors for ISM Manufacturing PMI® and Diffusion Indexes and ISM Non-Manufacturing NMI® and Diffusion Indexes

ISM Makes Annual Adjustments to Seasonal Factors for ISM Manufacturing PMI® and Diffusion Indexes and ISM Non-Manufacturing NMI® and Diffusion Indexes

TEMPE, Ariz., Jan. 29, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- Based on input from an independent expert, Institute for Supply Management(®) recently announced the completion of its annual adjustments to the seasonal factors used in the monthly Institute for Supply Management(®) (ISM) Manufacturing Report On Business(®) and the monthly Institute for Supply Management(®) (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Report On Business(®). Economists and managers who track these indexes will note that changes are effective with the January 2015 ISM Manufacturing Report On Business(®), which is scheduled to be released on February 2, 2015, and the January 2015 ISM Non-Manufacturing Report On Business(®), which will be released on February 4, 2015.

Seasonal adjustment factors are used to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-movable holidays. It is standard practice to project the seasonal adjustment factors used to calculate the indexes one year ahead (2015).

As in previous years, the X-13-ARIMA program was used to develop the revisions to the Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing indexes for 2011 through 2014, as well as the 2015 projected seasonal factors. The 2015 seasonal factors will be recomputed when the actual data are known in early 2016. Projected seasonal factors for 2015 and revised seasonally adjusted indexes are shown below.


2015 Seasonal Adjustment Factors for ISM Manufacturing Indexes


New Orders Production Employment Supplier Deliveries
---------- ---------- ---------- -------------------


Jan 2015 1.012 0.964 0.970 1.020

Feb 2015 1.058 1.034 1.012 1.003

Mar 2015 1.081 1.060 1.020 1.029

Apr 2015 1.103 1.108 1.077 1.037

May 2015 1.030 1.065 1.045 1.006

Jun 2015 0.973 0.990 1.009 0.994

Jul 2015 0.930 0.955 1.015 1.023

Aug 2015 0.977 0.979 0.987 0.996

Sep 2015 0.968 0.974 0.970 0.997

Oct 2015 0.955 0.964 0.967 0.972

Nov 2015 0.992 0.985 0.964 0.949

Dec 2015 0.924 0.924 0.966 0.975


To compute the PMI®:

1) Calculate the unadjusted diffusion index for New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries to two decimal places (percent higher or slower plus one half of the percent same or unchanged). For Inventories, it will be percent higher plus one half of the percent same or unchanged.

2) Divide each unadjusted diffusion index by its seasonal factor (round to one decimal place).

3) Add all five index numbers together and divide by five.

To compute other indexes, follow steps #1 and #2 above for each indicator.


2015 Seasonal Adjustment Factors for ISM Non-Manufacturing Indexes


Business Activity New Orders Employment Prices
----------------- ---------- ---------- ------


Jan 2015 0.935 0.941 0.949 1.032

Feb 2015 0.993 1.015 1.002 1.047

Mar 2015 1.070 1.046 1.034 1.068

Apr 2015 1.063 1.039 1.050 1.047

May 2015 1.050 1.053 1.058 1.010

Jun 2015 0.976 1.003 1.082 1.018

Jul 2015 1.002 0.987 1.032 1.006

Aug 2015 0.994 0.978 0.991 0.975

Sep 2015 0.997 1.015 0.935 0.971

Oct 2015 0.960 0.951 0.955 0.958

Nov 2015 0.988 1.017 0.927 0.925

Dec 2015 0.971 0.953 0.988 0.945


To compute the NMI®:

1) Calculate the unadjusted diffusion index for Business Activity, New Orders and Employment to two decimal places (percent higher or up plus one half of the percent same or unchanged). For Supplier Deliveries, it will be percent slower plus one half of the percent same or unchanged.

2) Divide each unadjusted diffusion index by its seasonal factor (round to one decimal place).

3) Add all four index numbers together and divide by four.

To compute other indexes, follow steps #1 and #2 above for each indicator.


Revised Manufacturing Seasonally Adjusted Indexes 2011-2014


PMI(R) New Orders Production Employment Supplier Deliveries
----- ---------- ---------- ---------- -------------------


Jan 2011 59.1 62.1 63.7 60.7 57.0

Feb 2011 59.6 61.9 64.9 61.6 58.9

Mar 2011 59.2 61.7 63.9 60.9 60.3

Apr 2011 59.3 62.1 61.3 59.7 58.9

May 2011 53.9 53.9 53.4 57.5 56.0

Jun 2011 56.9 55.9 57.4 61.0 56.6

Jul 2011 52.7 54.4 54.4 55.3 51.5

Aug 2011 52.8 51.3 51.5 54.6 52.1

Sep 2011 52.7 51.3 53.3 54.7 52.2

Oct 2011 51.4 51.2 52.1 54.9 52.1

Nov 2011 51.7 54.0 53.7 52.9 51.2

Dec 2011 52.8 55.3 58.8 54.7 49.7


Jan 2012 52.9 55.2 55.2 54.2 50.4

Feb 2012 53.1 55.9 58.1 53.9 48.1

Mar 2012 53.3 55.9 56.8 55.1 48.7

Apr 2012 54.2 57.3 60.1 56.4 48.5

May 2012 53.4 58.9 55.1 56.5 50.4

Jun 2012 51.3 51.5 53.9 56.7 50.4

Jul 2012 50.1 49.2 50.5 52.1 49.7

Aug 2012 50.7 48.4 49.1 52.5 50.5

Sep 2012 51.9 53.0 51.1 54.1 50.9

Oct 2012 50.7 50.2 50.9 52.9 49.5

Nov 2012 48.9 49.5 51.2 48.6 50.2

Dec 2012 50.0 50.3 51.9 52.2 52.5


Jan 2013 52.6 51.6 54.8 54.2 51.5

Feb 2013 54.1 57.0 58.3 52.7 51.1

Mar 2013 52.0 52.7 54.6 52.8 50.2

Apr 2013 50.3 50.6 53.2 50.4 50.8

May 2013 50.1 51.1 50.8 49.5 50.0

Jun 2013 52.8 55.9 55.6 50.8 51.1

Jul 2013 54.4 58.0 60.7 54.0 52.2

Aug 2013 55.6 61.5 62.0 54.5 52.7

Sep 2013 55.6 60.7 59.7 54.6 53.1

Oct 2013 55.8 58.9 59.2 54.1 54.2

Nov 2013 56.0 60.2 60.9 55.3 53.3

Dec 2013 56.1 64.9 60.4 55.2 53.1


Jan 2014 51.8 52.8 56.0 52.6 53.8

Feb 2014 54.3 56.1 52.1 52.8 57.9

Mar 2014 54.4 56.4 57.3 51.9 53.8

Apr 2014 55.3 56.2 57.1 54.7 55.4

May 2014 55.6 58.7 59.0 53.5 53.6

Jun 2014 55.7 59.1 59.9 53.9 52.7

Jul 2014 56.4 62.0 60.9 56.3 54.3

Aug 2014 58.1 63.9 63.1 57.4 54.2

Sep 2014 56.1 59.4 62.4 54.6 52.6

Oct 2014 57.9 63.0 62.8 55.2 56.1

Nov 2014 57.6 62.1 62.6 54.6 57.0

Dec 2014 55.1 57.8 57.7 56.0 58.6


The revised breakeven point for the overall economy is a PMI® of 43.1 percent. A PMI® over 43.1 percent indicates an expanding overall economy. A PMI® below 43.1 percent indicates the overall economy is declining. The ISM Manufacturing Inventories Index is no longer seasonally adjusted as of January 2012.


Revised Non-Manufacturing Seasonally Adjusted Indexes 2011-2014


NMI(R) Business Activity New Orders Employment Prices
----- ----------------- ---------- ---------- ------


Jan 2011 57.2 61.5 61.7 51.9 70.2

Feb 2011 57.2 63.4 59.5 53.9 70.6

Mar 2011 55.8 58.6 60.0 53.0 70.5

Apr 2011 55.4 57.1 57.5 53.9 71.1

May 2011 55.0 54.8 56.3 54.7 70.3

Jun 2011 54.4 56.6 55.8 53.0 62.3

Jul 2011 53.7 56.5 54.2 53.5 60.4

Aug 2011 53.7 56.0 54.4 51.5 60.8

Sep 2011 52.5 56.1 54.9 49.3 61.3

Oct 2011 52.8 54.1 53.3 51.9 58.4

Nov 2011 53.0 55.8 53.4 52.9 63.5

Dec 2011 52.6 55.9 54.1 48.8 62.0


Jan 2012 55.8 58.8 58.5 54.7 61.5

Feb 2012 55.5 60.4 58.2 53.8 66.8

Mar 2012 55.5 59.1 58.1 55.3 64.8

Apr 2012 54.6 55.9 55.8 55.0 56.5

May 2012 54.3 56.0 55.9 52.4 53.0

Jun 2012 53.5 54.7 55.5 52.6 49.8

Jul 2012 52.5 55.4 54.8 50.4 54.9

Aug 2012 53.2 54.5 54.1 52.8 61.7

Sep 2012 54.9 59.2 55.9 52.8 66.1

Oct 2012 54.4 56.7 55.6 53.9 62.0

Nov 2012 54.9 60.3 57.0 53.3 58.2

Dec 2012 55.8 60.7 59.1 54.8 56.4


Jan 2013 55.1 56.6 56.0 55.3 57.1

Feb 2013 55.7 57.2 57.6 56.3 60.3

Mar 2013 55.0 57.3 56.4 53.2 56.1

Apr 2013 53.9 55.6 55.8 53.3 52.5

May 2013 53.9 56.4 56.2 51.0 53.3

Jun 2013 53.7 54.7 53.5 55.0 55.3

Jul 2013 55.3 58.3 56.3 54.0 57.5

Aug 2013 57.1 59.7 58.3 55.7 53.1

Sep 2013 54.0 54.8 57.6 53.5 56.9

Oct 2013 55.0 59.6 56.5 54.9 56.9

Nov 2013 53.8 54.5 55.2 54.3 53.3

Dec 2013 53.1 55.3 50.5 55.2 55.2


Jan 2014 54.3 56.6 52.2 56.0 57.0

Feb 2014 52.5 55.7 53.0 48.4 56.0

Mar 2014 53.7 54.2 54.8 53.7 58.1

Apr 2014 55.3 60.3 58.3 52.2 60.4

May 2014 56.1 61.1 59.9 53.2 60.2

Jun 2014 56.3 59.2 60.4 54.5 60.1

Jul 2014 57.9 61.3 62.6 56.1 60.0

Aug 2014 58.6 63.1 62.1 56.6 57.3

Sep 2014 58.1 62.0 60.5 57.8 55.2

Oct 2014 56.9 60.5 59.3 58.3 52.8

Nov 2014 58.8 63.4 61.0 56.3 55.0

Dec 2014 56.5 58.6 59.2 55.7 49.8


The ISM Report On Business® is considered by many economists to be the most reliable near-term economic barometer available. It is reviewed regularly by top government agencies and economic and business leaders for its timely, accurate information. The Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management®. Each month, both reports are compiled from responses to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives across the country and reflects change, if any, in the current month compared to previous months. Institute for Supply Management® (ISM) is the first supply management institute in the world. Founded in 1915, ISM's mission is to enhance the value and performance of procurement and supply chain management practitioners and their organizations worldwide. By executing and extending its mission through education, research, standards of excellence and information dissemination -- including the renowned monthly ISM Report On Business® -- ISM maintains a strong global influence among individuals and organizations.


Contact: Kathleen Lacy

ISM, ROB/Research

Report On Business(R) Analyst

Tempe, Arizona

800/888-6276, Ext. 3143

klacy@ism.ws


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