Obama Leads McCain 50% to 45% Among Likely Voters, 49% to 38% Among Registered Voters in New Franklin & Marshall / Hearst-Argyle Poll

Obama Leads McCain 50% to 45% Among Likely Voters, 49% to 38% Among Registered Voters in New Franklin & Marshall / Hearst-Argyle Poll

2% of Likely Voters Remain Undecided

82% of Registered Voters Believe Country is on Wrong Track; Obama Leads Among These Voters 55% to 30%

Economy is Cited as Issue by 47%; Iraq War and Values, 10% Each

The Franklin & Marshall College National Poll, produced in partnership with Hearst-Argyle Television, finds that Barack Obama leads John McCain nationally by five percentage points (50% to 45%) among likely voters with 2% undecided. The Obama lead is larger (49% to 38%) among registered voters.

(LOGO: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20080626/NYTH050LOGO )

Among likely voters Obama leads among women (51% to 41%), those between 18-34 years of age (58% to 28%), Catholics (48% to 41%), non-Hispanic blacks (89% to 3%), independents (47% to 38%), and those living in the Northeast (50% to 40%), the West (49% to 39%), and the Midwest (50% to 41%). McCain has an advantage among those over 55 (50% to 41%), non-Hispanic whites (52% to 40%), fundamentalist Christians (56% to 34%), military veterans (67% to 30%), and among Southerners (48% to 44%). Male voters divide about evenly.

A substantial majority (82%) of registered American voters believes the country is off on the wrong track, and 40% say they are worse off financially this year than last. Obama is the choice of those who say the country is off on the wrong track (55% to 30%), while McCain has substantial support from those who feel the country is moving in the right direction (73% to 21%). Obama leads among those whose personal finances are worse off compared to last year (60% to 26%), and McCain does well among those whose personal finances are better than last year (61% to 32%). The economy (47%), moral values (10%), and the Iraq War (10%) are most often mentioned as the issues influencing presidential vote choice. Obama leads McCain among registered voters who are primarily concerned with the economy (61% to 24%) and the Iraq War (54% to 31%), while McCain leads among values voters (76% to 13%). The main "concerns" cited by voters about McCain are his policy views (44%) and his "similarity" to the current administration (33%). The main concerns cited about Obama are his policy views (36%) and his lack of experience (28%).

These results are based on interviews conducted October 13-19, 2008. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin and Marshall College under the direction of the poll's Director Dr. G. Terry Madonna, Head Methodologist Berwood Yost, and Project Manager Brad Nankerville. The data included in this release represent the responses of 1,365 registered voters in the United States. Telephone numbers for the survey were generated using random digit dialing, and respondents were randomly selected from within each household. Survey results were weighted using an iterative weighting algorithm. The sample error for registered adults is +/-2.7 percent. Among likely voters the sample error is +/- 3.5 percent.

To view more findings, including those for various demographics including age, and religious and regional preferences, go to: http://www.fandm.edu/x2217.xml.

This is the third national poll in a series produced at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, Pa., with Hearst-Argyle; the partnership, whose first poll was in June 2008, was forged out of a longstanding regional relationship between Franklin & Marshall and Hearst-Argyle station WGAL-TV, the NBC affiliate serving the Lancaster/Harrisburg TV market.

The Franklin & Marshall College Poll has assessed the views of the residents and voters of Pennsylvania since 1992, and past polls and other analysis also can be found at http://politics.fandm.edu/.

Hearst-Argyle Television, Inc. owns 26 television stations, and manages an additional three television and two radio stations owned by Hearst Corporation, in geographically diverse U.S. markets. The Company's television stations reach approximately 18% of U.S. TV households, making it one of America's largest television station groups. Hearst-Argyle owns 12 ABC-affiliated stations, and manages an additional ABC station owned by Hearst Corporation, and is the largest ABC affiliate group. The Company also owns 10 NBC affiliates, and is the second-largest NBC affiliate owner, and owns two CBS affiliates. Also, Hearst-Argyle owns more than 30 Websites. The company's Web address is www.hearstargyle.com.

Photo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20080626/NYTH050LOGO
Source: Hearst-Argyle Television, Inc.

CONTACT: Dr. G. Terry Madonna, Director of the Center for Politics and
Public Affairs and Director, Franklin and Marshall College Poll, and Professor
of Public Affairs, Franklin & Marshall College, +1-717-291-4052, or cell
+1-717-575-2164, or fax +1-717-358-4666 terry.madonna@fandm.edu; or for
Hearst-Argyle Television, Inc., Tom Campo, Campo Communications, LLC,
+1-212-590-2464, tom@campocommunications.com

Web Site: http://politics.fandm.edu/
http://www.hearstargyle.com/

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